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Response to [Forecasting of software …] by Jørgensen

GENERAL CITE

This paper reviewed 16 studies of using expert judgement and formal models to answer the question of 1) which method yields more accurate estimation and 2) when we should which method or alternatively combine them. To answer the first question, the author considered the inherent accuracy levels of each method (most, average and least accurate) and  inspected the accuracy between each possible combination ({m, a, l} x {m, a, l}). The results show that the possibly best formal model “is likely to lead to more accurate estimates than the judgements of either the average or the least accurate experts, but not more accurate estimates than the judgements of the best expert“. To answer the second question, the author considered the level of calibration against models regarding situations. He claimed that there is “a weak connection between how well models perform relative to experts and the level of model calibration”.

KEY POINTS

INSPRIATION

The might be research potentials in group expert judgement. How can we leverage between experts with different experience, accuracy, expertise, etc.

The might also be research potentials in comparison-based estimation, for example, the estimation of a project depends on a number of previous projects and the similarity between them.

 

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About Xiang 'Anthony' Chen

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